Stratfor, remetido pelo amigo Alvaro Caputo.
 


Geopolitical Diary: The Vatican's New Clash With Islam

March 24, 2008

Pope Benedict XVI baptized Magdi Allam on March 22 as part of an Easter vigil service. Allam is an Egyptian-born convert from Islam to Christianity, and is a prominent outspoken critic of radical Islamism. Only days before, on March 19, an Internet posting of an audio message purporting to be from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden accused the pope specifically of fomenting a “new Crusade” against Islam.


The papacy is a unique geopolitical entity. It was once literally a kingmaker, crowning the rulers of the Holy Roman Empire. Before the rise of the international system as we know it today, it orchestrated more than a dozen religious crusades to Jerusalem (then held by Muslims) and encouraged a doomed Spanish expedition to take the British Isles from a Protestant English monarch. Today, the Vatican’s role on the world stage is considerably smaller.

But that has not kept the Holy See from crusading — the Catholic Church has remained entangled in affairs of state. Indeed, that is what it must do if it is to remain relevant to the political world and keep its one billion adherents energized. Unlike large and powerful states, the Vatican lacks a significant military or economic presence on the geopolitical stage. It must continually work to assert and sustain its political relevance.

During the first decade of his reign, Pope John Paul II railed against communism. His first official visit was to his homeland of Poland, then behind the Iron Curtain. He used the trip as a litmus test for the fragility of the Soviet Union, and in 1989 met with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and secured the rights of the Church throughout the Soviet Bloc. Gorbachev later credited him with having had a role in the downfall of the Soviet Union. Since the demise of the Soviet Union, the Vatican has been searching for a new place in geopolitics.


The Soviet Union was a political entity — but Benedict’s actions very well could have the opposite effect on a religious entity. In attempting to galvanize and energize one billion Catholics, Benedict might also further alienate one billion Muslims. Benedict’s baptism of Allam will not go unnoticed in the Islamic world. The level of anti-Western sentiment among even mainstream Muslims is on the rise, and even they could take offense to such a prominent display.

The Church has its share of bad blood with Islam, though the tension has waxed and waned. In the 21st century, John Paul was the first pope to pray inside a Muslim mosque. But Benedict has gotten off to a rough start. In 2006, he quoted a Byzantine Christian emperor who referred to the Prophet Mohammed’s contribution to religion as “evil and inhumane.” Should Benedict choose to push more aggressively against radical Islamism by using his office to highlight cases like Allam’s and by emphasizing conversion rather than coexistence, it could very well move the Vatican onto center stage in radical Islamism’s conflict with the West. And that can have profound geopolitical implications.