Washington Post

Analysis
Bhutto's Assassination Deals Blow to U.S. Goal for Pakistan


By Robin Wright and Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, December 27, 2007; 3:09 PM

The assassination today of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is a major blow to the U.S. goal of stabilizing Pakistan, a volatile ally with nuclear weapons that has served as a frontline against extremism since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, according to former U.S. policymakers and experts.

"Our foreign policy has relied on her presence as a stabilizing force. She had a big public following . . . Without her, we will have to regroup," said Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), who is in Pakistan and was scheduled to meet Bhutto tonight. "It complicates life for the American government."The Bush administration had worked for more than a year to orchestrate a deal between Bhutto and Musharraf that would allow her to return from exile and run for office as a means of bolstering pro-Western moderates and creating a wider political front against growing extremist movements in Pakistan, especially along its border with Afghanistan. Without Bhutto, Musharraf has virtually no major political allies willing to take positions widely unpopular in Pakistan but critical to U.S. interests. A Pew Survey last summer found only 15 percent of Pakistanis had a favorable view of the United States.

Bhutto's assassination during a campaign stop in Rawalpindi also puts in doubt prospects that an election can produce a credible government, former policymakers and analysts said."More broadly, this is a major loss because the elections scheduled for early January had the potential to move the country forward," said Daniel Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Despite her past failures, she was still a legitimate leader who could have worked with Musharraf and the army to have an accommodation in Islamabad." President Bush condemned Bhutto's assassination as a "cowardly act by murderous extremists" trying to undermine Pakistan's democracy. Within hours of the attack, Bush called Musharraf to express U.S. support for the democratic transition and upcoming elections. "We don't want to see any kind of backsliding in terms of people's civil liberties," a senior State Department official said, adding this was the message Bush planned to make to Musharraf.

The administration was clearly taken aback by Bhutto's death, despite earlier assassination attempts and ongoing threats against her. "Washington has seen Bhutto as the bridge into civilian democratic government and now that she's been removed, the administration will have to reassess how it deals with a very uncertain future for Pakistan," said Karl F. Inderfurth, former assistant secretary of state for South Asia.In a statement, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appealed to Pakistanis to remain calm and to continue to try and build a "moderate" democracy. Washington also signaled that the elections should go forward without delay, arguing that any postponement would only reward Bhutto's killers.

"I don't think it would do any justice to her memory to have an election postponed or canceled simply as a result of this tragic incident," State Department spokesman Tom Casey told reporters. "The only people that win through such a course of action are the people who perpetrated this attack."

The State Department called on President Musharraf and others in the Pakistani government "to do everything they can to create the conditions on the ground to have as free and fair and transparent an election as possible," Casey told reporters. "No political system can last long without having legitimacy in the eyes of its people." The United States is particularly concerned about the potential for initial demonstrations to become open-ended protests against the Musharraf government. U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne W. Patterson is also reaching out to other opposition parties and civil society groups to urge calm, U.S. officials said. Rice telephoned Bhutto's husband as well as Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a deputy leader of Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party, to urge them to continue participating in the election, State Department officials said.

Staff writer Amy Gardner contributed to this article from Crawford, Tex.